In the extremely well-reasoned piece, Takeyh argued that while the Iranian regime will certainly strike back somehow, it will be measured in that response. He says that the Mullahs are, indeed, highly aggressive, and do dream of an Iranian sphere of influence that would include much of the Middle East. (Let's be blunt, they are aiming for Great Power status.)
But, he concludes, they are surprisingly pragmatic. They are not in a position, yet, to strike back in a major way. They will, instead, commit some random act of terrorism, or maybe a hack attack, and then fall back to plan for another day.
Is he right? I don't know. I certainly hope he is. It would be nice to know that Iran wasn't going to launch nuclear weapons or anything in the future. And Takeyh is an expert on the subject. He is, among many other things, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. So, I guess I'll put my faith in his prediction and, for most part, relax.
But not entirely relax. I still think the killing was badly managed. And as for the Iranian response...
I try never to believe that an enemy (or a friend) will act in the way that I hope he will act...and the way I think he should act...
Because, all too often, he does neither.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment