Note to Putin: Don’t Even Think About It

Don't Tempt Him.

So several countries sharing a border with Russia are preparing for war on the theory that once Putin is done with Ukraine, other nations are bound to follow. One of those is Finland (see Finland accelerates preparedness for war in all forms by Shona Murray in Euro.news) and another is Poland (see Poland prepares for war by Rob Schmitz and Greg Dixon on the NPR website.) 

As is clear from both articles, the two countries are quite serious about fighting back. And remember, both nations fought wars of independence with Russia – Finland twice (The Winter War and the Continuation War), and Poland in the Polish-Soviet War of 1919-1921. In both cases, these much smaller European nations did remarkably well against their much larger rival. 

So, note to Putin. Don’t think about an invasion of either Poland, or Finland, or anywhere else in Western Europe. You didn’t do well in your initial invasion of Ukraine. You are still not doing terribly well there. And, yes, you’ve learned a lot over the last few years, but so has everyone else. We’ve all learned the lessons of this new kind of war – the importance of drones, cyberwarfare, social media, etc. –  and we know how to apply them. 

Therefore, here’s a word of advice. Yes, Trump, that repulsive lickspittle, has given you the green light to do what you like in Europe. But he’s not the only factor to consider. Finland, Poland, plus the whole of NATO, are fully capable of hurting you badly.

So badly, in fact, that even a victory might seem Pyrrhic at best, and an abject disaster at worst.