Gadhafi Again, and once more I am humbled

Once again I return to Gadhafi. And once more I am made humble.

A few weeks back I confidently predicted that he would fall. (At least I wasn’t alone in that. Half the world seems to have assumed it.)

But, now, he may be winning. Those Who Know Best in political science departments, embassies, and European capitals are beginning to rethink their projections. China and Iran breathe a little easier. People Power is not, after all, invincible. If you are willing to bomb and strafe, and use mercenaries, and leave bodies in the streets...you can remain on the throne, no matter how despised you may be.

So, I am humbled. My predictions are shown to be nonsense. My only defense is that it never occurred to me that the West would not support (at least passively) the rebellion. I never considered the vast resources that oil had made available to the Gadhafi family over the last few decades. It never occurred to me that they would use those resources to pay for an army of foreigners to slaughter their own people.

And, maybe most of all, I never dreamed that something like the Japanese earthquake and tsunami would occur. The world, you see, is finite and interlinked. When something of this magnitude occurs, we focus our attention on it. Which is good, and speaks well for our humanity…but it also means that other actors are now free to do as they like without scrutiny. The cat is away, and the rat, as they say, well, you finish the sentence.

So, it may be that I was abjectly wrong and Gadhafi will win his war on Libya.

Yet, I will argue still that, on one level, I will be vindicated, and Gadhafi’s triumph will, in fact, be pyrrhic.

You see, here’s the thing: he may “win,” but only through massacre. And he will have expended much in the way of time, effort, money, and political capital in his struggle. It could be that eventually another rebellion, another crisis, will strike, and this time he (or his heirs) may not have the wherewithal to respond.

More...he is now revealed.

He came to power, and kept it, as a Man Of The People. He was a populist revolutionary. Like Nasser, and Peron, he was the man of action who took power in the name of the common folk, who would protect them from foreign imperialists and homegrown elites. He was tolerated because of that. Yes, the world said, he was a little strange, a little bloody-minded, and he funded terrorists…but, well, his heart was in the right place.

But, now, that’s gone. The world sees him as he really is: a tyrant, ruling with naked force over a seething people who would destroy him if that were possible. And, if he is remembered at all by history, it will be as that, illegitimate and foul, united in spirit with the Greek colonels, and the Argentine Junta, and Mobutu with his private Zaire…like them ruling exclusively for personal gain, like them kleptocrats, like them brutal and crude, like them kept in place only by the gun, the bullet, and the whip.

And, in the long run, that perception will matter. It will matter more than bombs and mercenaries. It will matter more than his “victory,” should that occur.

For, you see, truth is invincible. And once unleashed, as it is now unleashed, it can be deadly. At least to those who live by falsehood.

And this, Gadhafi and his heirs will discover. This they will learn, too late, as it twists and disfigures them...as it destroys them… as truth, for them, proves more toxic than poison, more fatal than plague.

Libya 2: The Dictator’s Children, and What They Teach

(Now that I have confessed my own failures, let me turn to our national, American elites…)

I am going to argue that our American elites—the bankers, the lawyers, the Wall Streeters, all the rest—should be paying very close attention to Libya. Or, more particularly, to the Children of Colonel.

I confess, I knew almost nothing about Gadhafi’s children prior to the current revolution. I suspect that very few of us did. For a long while, they were sort of invisible. Oh, I’m sure Gadhafi’s sons, daughters, and potential heirs were known in governmental and diplomatic circles, but to the average American they were as little visible as ghosts in the noonday sun. One simply didn’t think of them.

But, they existed all the same. And now, we learn that they’ve been playboying it up around the world for decades. We get stories of champagne parties on Caribbean islands where big name entertainers are paid millions for a song or two. Like the sons of Kim Jong-il and Saddam Hussein, they have lived the lives of princes, consuming much, and producing little.

And the frightening thing is how familiar they seem. When you look at Gadhafi and his family, and you look past the trappings of revolution, the uniforms, the colorful “native” garb displayed at ceremonies, and all the rest of it…you find they look pretty much like our own privileged classes. You watch them on TV or the net, and they are in the same business suits and corporate casual attire. They have the same fashionable hair cuts. They drive the same expensive cars. They attend the same schools. They party on the same islands and sleep with (or try to, anyway) the same models and movie stars.

They are, we belatedly discover, simply one more variety of the global, international, jet-setting, rootless, world elite.

Something which, by the by, may explain much of how and why it was so easy for our leaders to forgive Gadhafi for so much, so quickly. It explains why a short few years after the Lockerbie massacre, Tony Blair stood smiling beside him, George W. Bush sent Condoleezza Rice to woo him, and our companies and corporations pressed in upon him almost hysterically, like Teenyboppers around a rock star.

It was because they recognized one of their own.

Which brings me to my point …to why I say our elites should be paying very close attention to international affairs.

Gadhafi is falling.

He may not be dead yet. In the end, he may manage to turn Tripoli into a kind of fortress city-state, separate from the rest of Libya. There, he and his heirs might hang on for a while yet.

But, in the end, he’s finished. The expense of holding on to power will vastly exceed his revenues. The very best he can hope for is to be a marginal figure, squatting Hitler-like in his bunker, and watching the empty hours pass.

Why do I stress that? Why do I say that our own privileged classes should note well his passing? Because they should keep in mind that if he can go, they can go.

Of course, no one in America is in Gadhafi’s league. No one has shot protestors recently, nor bombed and strafed innocent civilians. But, still our elites have not behaved well of late. They have done much to bankrupt the nation. They have outsourced and off-shored. They have been indifferent to the fate of their countrymen.

And if they keep on as they have done…laying off and cutting back, reducing men and women to drones and drudges, pretending that they do this only because of the inevitable laws of economics and that they have no choice in the matter … then, ultimately, they, too, will face consequences.

Like Gadhafi, they may survive. But they must ask themselves, now, before it is too late…will accounts received be equal to expenditures? Will it really be profitable to practice repression when a few compromises might defuse the ticking bomb?

Or, to put it another way, how comfortable are they, really…

In the bunker?

Libya 1: Gadhafi, Me, and My Fellow Liberals

This is the first of two related postings …

I have, like everyone else, been watching with bated breath while Libya fights its civil war. I, like most people, am of course rooting for the revolution. I hope that Gadhafi is gone before too much longer. (Although, alas, it is possible that he will endure for quite a while yet, hanging on, like a disease that cannot quite be cured, or a wound that will not heal.)

Yet, I must confess, Libya’s war has forced me to rethink some of my ideas. It has forced me to confront a few of my own failings…

Specifically, I have been watching while populist despots around the world—Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez—have stepped up to the plate to defend their friend and contemporary, Gadhafi, that hero of the revolution, who blew up airplanes and machine gunned his own people.

Castro, Chavez, etc. have said they will not abandon him in his hour of need. When pressed, they trot out the old creaking clichés about American and Western imperialism. (Perhaps only Gadhafi’s delusion that his people “love” him, and that the revolt is fueled by drugs and Osama Bin Laden, exceeds the sheer lunacy Castro’s proclamation that the crisis was an American invention meant to prepare the way for a NATO invasion of the Middle East.)

Which means that they are, indeed, birds of a feather. Which means, in turn, that those of us who are or were liberals… like me…have to wonder a bit about our support for such figures. And let us face it. We did support them. In our heart of hearts we admired the man on the white horse who came in the name of The People and turned out all the rascals.

But what if the man on the horse himself proves a rascal? Or, worse, a monster? And The People hate him more than words can say? Are we not somewhat guilty of supporting evil?

I am, thus, made uncomfortable. I am, thus, humbled.