Press Kits, inertia, history...

When I was young, I'd hear stories of grown children entering the homes of their deceased parents and finding there no end of, well, crap—fifty years of canceled checks, tax returns dating back two generations, sales receipts from purchases made at the corner store when the corner store had not yet been torn down for the filling station.

And I'd wonder how on earth it happened. The parents knew such things were worthless. Yet, they kept them. They kept them for decades.

Ah, but now…

As you know, I'm moving. I've mostly finished cleaning out my office. But, today I put my courage to the sticking place and went into the basement. Box upon box of papers awaited me. Most of these date to the twenty years or so that I was a trade press journalist.

It was astonishing stuff really—press releases, notes I'd taken, rough and second drafts of articles, photos of various computers, a couple of plaques I'd gotten when winning various awards from various press organizations.

As I hauled most of it to the dump (I completely filled the back of my little Ranger pickup with boxes and crates of paper), I asked myself why on earth I'd kept it all…or, indeed, even wanted it. Then, I remembered my motivations. Each time I'd leave a magazine I'd smuggle out my files. The idea was that I'd use the material, the contacts, the notes, the photos in articles I'd write for my new employer…or, if that employer did not prove lasting, for freelancing.

And, in a very, very few cases, that actually happened. But, most of the time, somehow, I never got around to it. I'd mean to take the files into the new office…but, there was the job to learn, there were new subjects to research, new deeds to do and promises to keep. I'd intend to open my notes for all those articles I was going to write freelance…but, there was the boy to raise, the marriage to maintain, a life to lead, and, well, nothing came of it. The boxes never got out of my basement.

Then I understood…the fifty years of canceled checks, the register tapes from 1942. It is human nature. For me to have actually made use of all those boxes of files, I would have had to expend considerable effort. I would have had to sort and organize, shift this and move that, find a place for something else. Easier, easier by far to simply let it sit there.

Thus inertia. It is like gravitation. Seemingly feeble, but given time and mass, irresistible, immovable…mighty beyond measure.


*

Actually, I rather enjoyed going through all the press kits and releases from decades past. It was strange but pleasant to travel there in my personal history, among the things which had seemed so exciting at the time.

All useless now, of course. The companies that mailed the releases and kits exist today only in the memories of former employees. The products they offered are obsolete, as dead as dinosaurs (more so, if you consider birds).

Yet just because it is useless does not mean it is meaningless. All that you do now…the computer in your lap, the phone in your pocket, the router which is your window to the Web … all that, every bit of it, was built upon what was done then. It was pioneering. It was adventure. It was the foundation of your electronic, digital, virtual world.

As such, it is vital. Without it, where would you stand?

More on Machines that Think, and What We Need to Do About Them

Hi, everyone,

Well, as you’ll recall, I’m doing one of my infamous series, this one on machines like Watson (the famous IBM computer that was on Jeopardy a while back) and the effect they’re going to have on the world of work. I’ve been arguing that such systems and software are going to put a lot of white-collar workers out of work. The professions, which have so long defined success in America, are going to become ever more sparse in terms of jobs.

I’ve also argued that the only thing we can do about it is to stress what we humans do well, and what machines do badly. We need, I suggest, to stress our capacity for creativity and invention.

However, I’m going to conclude my little series by saying that we’ve got a serious problem on our hands. To wit, we’ve got to learn to be creative. (And when I say “we” I mean our children. They are the ones who will rise or fail in the world that Watson made.) Ah, but there’s the rub. Right now our educational system is not geared up to produce creative people.

If anything, it is meant to stamp out creativity.

*

I’m quite serious about that. If you have children, think about the number of worksheets…all basically identical…that your son or daughter brings home in their bulging backpack every evening. Think of the endless exercises they are required to perform—again, all basically identical, all requiring the mastery of one or two basic rules (when this do that…divide by two…pick a verb). Think about the underlying assumption about work that is to be found in those exercises. And, consider, too, that the real lesson being taught here. It has nothing to do with numbers or words. It is rather that success comes from servility and passivity.

And we train them that way because that’s the skill you need to perform most white-collar jobs—i.e., you need to be able to sit down and perform certain prescribed tasks according to a limited number of fixed rules on an enormous number of data points.

But, as I’ve already said, Watson does that better than we can. And Watsons are going to be everywhere. So, for us to train our children to be Watson-esque is like training them in the arts of buffalo hunting and buggy whip manufacture.


*

What all this means is that our educational system has to change. And soon.

We need to teach our children to be creators. We need them to be innovators. We need them to be pioneering scientists, engineers, and technologists who don’t just apply the rules and turn the crank, but rather defamiliarize the obvious, and discover the obscure. We need them to be artists, musicians, actors and playwrights, filmmakers, and writers who ask uncomfortable questions, and perceive unexpected realities. We need them to be business entrepreneurs. Yes, entrepreneurship, too, is one of the creative arts. Perhaps, indeed, it is the most demanding of them all…the most requiring of invention and wisdom.

And, happily for us, we know how to do this. We know how to train children to be creators. There are no mysteries here. Maria Montessori and John Dewey explained it all a century ago. John Henry Newman, in his _ The Idea of a University _, did the same earlier still. You give children science, mathematics, literature, art, and philosophy as their toys.

You let them play.


*

Mind you, I’m not being “liberal” or idealistic, or utopian. This is not the chaotic classroom that some people blame for the decline of American education. It is a form of discipline…an unstructured discipline, perhaps, but discipline all the same. It is a system in which the teacher has authority, but an authority that leads rather than forces the way into learning. And it is ancient. It is the ultimate “back to basics.” It is the way of Socrates, Aristotle, Plato…and the Prophets, and Christ, and the Buddha. It is the way of the sage.

And, besides, we have no choice.

The reality is that Watson and his successors will reshape the workplace utterly. If we continue as we have in the past, our children will fail. They will be outclassed by the machine’s brute force. And, not just them, but our culture may perish utterly.


*


This is my argument. This is what I believe about Watson.

In fact, I’ve written an op-ed piece to this effect. I’m sending it about to magazines and newspapers.

Will it ever be published? I sort of doubt it.

There is a lesser and a greater reason for that. The lesser is that Watson is now old news. In an age of high-speed journalism, and higher speed opinions, he has already been discussed and judged by all the People Who Know Best. They have long ago moved on to other things.

The greater is I’m sending it to people who are editors and journalists — that is, people who have succeeded in the current system, people who are the products of J-schools and professional development seminars

Such individuals will not find my ideas particularly appealing.

But, even so…

Even if my manuscript lingers long upon the shelf until it eventually drops from view… I’m right.

And, in the end, Watson will prove it.

Time… and machines… are on my side.


*

Onward and upward.








Copyright © 2011 Michael Jay Tucker

Watson 2: More on Machines That Think

Okay, you’ll recall that I’m in the middle of one of my infamous series—this one on the impact of our increasingly sophisticated machines on the white-collar professions. Last time I talked about Watson, the IBM computer that competed on Jeopardy a while back…competed, and won.

And, also last time, I argued that Watson and Watson-like devices will never threaten the human race. They are impressive, but they don’t genuinely think. They can and do sort a lot of data in a hurry, but, at least as yet, they can’t do what comes easily to any child, like being creative or innovative. They are not self-aware nor are they sentient, and so remain simply tools.

But, tools are mighty things in their own right. Last time I also argued that Watson-class systems and software will remake our economy and society. That’s because a single executive with access to such machines will be able to do the work of a hundred people. Which means that corporations, law firms, government agencies, universities, and even hospitals will employ far, far fewer MBAs, lawyers, administrators, specialists and other highly-trained white collar professionals.

Or, to put it all another way, we’re in for a cultural revolution. For the last century we have assumed that the way to wealth, well being, self-respect, status, and all the other aspects of a full life would come from being a “professional”—a doctor, a lawyer, a manager, and preferably a manager who did not soil his/her hands with anything vulgar like actually going into the field and touching things.

But, now…that’s not so true anymore. And our society is going to change to reflect with that.

How much will it change? Well, let me tell you a couple of stories. The first: there’s a man in my town who was a vice president at a large corporation. He had a seven figure salary, at least. He owns a huge house in an elite neighborhood, and sent his kids to private school and an Ivy League college. He was respected and admired, not to say envied by many of us in the area.

The kicker? Last year, his company was purchased by another. The new corporation then rationalized and downsized. It already had a marketing department. It didn’t need another one.

So, he was laid-off.

He got a very generous severance package. But, let’s face it, he’s probably never going to find a similar position. He’s middle aged. The corporate culture, like the corporation, into which he fit, is gone. The very industry in which he participated is changing beyond recognition. There is no room for him anymore.

Okay, now let me tell you my second story. It, too, is about a man in my town. But this is very different man. He will not in his entire life earn what the vice president was paid in a single year. He works down at the grocery store. He is a bagger. He suffers from a variety of physical problems, including violent and debilitating epileptic seizures. He has to wear a helmet at all times, so that if he falls his head will be protected.

His life is probably Spartan. Yet, he is intelligent. In fact, he is a talented potter. I see him and his wares at craft fairs around the area. I suspect he gets health insurance through the store, and then makes money on the side through his ceramics. His income may be low, but his wants are few.

Now, consider these two…

The second man is never out of work. If the store that employs him now should vanish, he could find another spot in an hour. Indeed, if he wished, he could go anywhere in the country and get a job.

The first man, though, the VP…he confronts the reality that he may never work again. He is too expensive, too specialized, and (though he is only in his 50s) too old for the corporations to hire again.

I submit that of these two men it is the second, the bagger, who is economically viable. The first man, the vice president, is not.

That is a fascinating and a terrifying thing.





We need to prepare for what is coming. We are going to have to come up with new ways for people to make their livings. And we’re going to have to learn to value different skills than we did before. We’ll have to figure out what we, as human beings, can offer the world that Watson and his children cannot.

And what’s that? What can we do that machines will never be able to do?

We can be inventive, empathetic and creative. We can have vision and purpose. We can understand the needs, wants, and motivations of our cohorts and customers. We can produce things which have never existed before.

We can be the anti-Watsons of the world.



But more on that, and how we’ll train our children for it, next time.

Onward and upward.


Copyright © 2011
Michael Jay Tucker

The shape of things to come

This is pretty important. More to come on this subject shortly....


Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software