WWII

Another of my little video lectures for my class in basic American history.

cheers
mjt

Watson 1: Thinking About Machines That Think

Okay, a while back I posted a link to a story on the New York Times webpage, “Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software,” by John Markoff. I said that it was very important.

You may have wondered why. I meant to explain myself quite a while back, but then, Gadhafi and Japan intruded. They were so much more important than any thoughts of mine.

But, now, I’ll get back to my point.

The software that is replacing legions of lawyers is a part of a much, much larger trend—that is, the development and application of technology which can largely automate certain aspects of white-collar work. The products mentioned in the piece allow one lawyer to do the work of many.

And it’s just beginning. Did you watch IBM’s Watson on Jeopardy? That machine’s performance was very much a sign of things to come.

Oh, don’t get me wrong. Watson isn’t going to take over the world. He’s harmless.

That’s because Watson isn’t really intelligent in a human sense. Watson’s showing was impressive. His ability to understand human speech was a technical triumph, and his capacity for seeking commonalities in huge collections of data was astonishing. But, I am not at all certain that he really understood his answers.

For instance, in one particularly amazing exercise (later highlighted on PBS’s NOVA), he was able to answer a question about Keanu Reeves and the movie, The Matrix. The way he did it was to identify “Reeves” as a noun and “movies” (or, actually, “flick”) as a category. He was then able to scan the Internet Movie Database in all its vastness for combinations of “Reeves” and some other qualifiers from the question.

As I say, impressive. But, ultimately, his answer wasn’t complete. I’m not sure he knows what a “movie” is. And I’m certain that his conception of a movie, should he have one, is not in any way human. He knows a “movie” is a “flick,” and that The Matrix is both of those…but he has no conception of what it’s like to see a film. He has no image of being in the warmth of a darkened theater, the air redolent with the scent of popcorn and butter, while your young son and his friends are in the row before yours, and you watch them tense and leap and cheer as villains are defeated and heroes triumph.

So that, I think, should be reassuring to anyone who fears that intelligent machines are taking over the world. Watson is amazing, but he cannot genuinely understand the human experience. It will be many long years before machines can do those things, if they ever do. (Sorry, gang, Skynet and Robby the Robot remain as distant as ever).

That’s the good news.

Now, the bad news. Watson and similar technology will engender a revolution in the workplace.

Let’s look at what Watson does really, really well. He—like all computers—excels at performing a number of small, tedious tasks over, and over, and over again. And, he is really good at shifting oceans of data in search of details and connections, no matter how trivial. And, finally, he obeys rules, inflexibly and tirelessly.

That was why he was so good at answering questions. He looked at millions upon millions of records in a thousand different databases, checking each and every one of them for certain qualities, and doing it all in nanoseconds. A human could never dream of doing the same, nor would any of us want to. It would be exhausting, and, bluntly, boring as hell.

But here’s where things get sticky. Consider what most high-powered, high-paying “professional” jobs entail. Sure, there are moments of insight and creation, but, let’s face it, most of what lawyers, business professionals, research-oriented academics, and even doctors do is pretty much what Watson does. They look at a lot of information and seek connections within an ocean of small, possibly relevant details. They do it according to a fairly limited set of rules. They do it as quickly as they can, and, if possible, do it 24/7 because that means they’re being more “productive.”

In other words, most of our white-collar professions, the jobs we value the most, are made up rote tasks.

And there’s the rub. Watson is far better at rote tasks than we can ever dream of being. His software and circuits are tireless. He is never bored or depressed. No operation is too mundane to excite him. No amount of data is overwhelming.

And better still, he is a perfect employee. He is without ego and need. He will happily work around the clock and back again. He is never on vacation. He never requires a sick day. He has no family to distract him from his tasks. He does not ask for a raise or a bonus. When the time comes to retire him, he demands no pension. You simply toss the body into a dumpster.

No, I’m not saying that Watson’s heirs will take over the corporation. Bill Gates and Tina Brown will not be replaced by a Terminator in the corner office. (At least not yet.) But the inescapable fact of the matter is that Mr. Gates and Ms. Brown will need fewer and fewer people to carry out their commands. A single executive, armed with one Watson, can do the work of a hundred MBAs.

And make no mistake, the world’s corporations know that. Watson is unique today, but he’ll be ubiquitous tomorrow. Even if he never sits on your desk like a PC or Mac, he’ll be available by subscription through the ‘Net. (And isn’t that what Google’s search engines are actually evolving toward?)

Which means that the white-collar professions (including the service professions which were supposed to save us in the postindustrial age) are going to employ fewer and fewer people. Just as the tractor removed the need for legions of field hands, and the industrial robot replaced a million men on assembly lines, so too will Watson and his children allow corporations, government agencies, and just about every other sort of organization to shed thousands of all too human professionals.

That, in turn, means that things are going to change. And big time.

But more about that next time.

Onward and upward.

Gadhafi...and Frantz Fanon

Right now, I’m reading Frantz Fanon’s The Wretched of the Earth. If you don’t know who he was, don’t worry. A lot of people don’t anymore. I’m not sure that’s a good thing or a bad.

Anyway, Fanon was a French psychiatrist, philosopher, and revolutionary. He was of mixed race (he was born on Martinique) and had experienced racism at its worst. He then worked for a time in Algeria while France was fighting its war there. He became radically anti-colonialist, joined the Algerian nationalists, and, wrote a series of books advocating the violent overthrow of European imperialism. He died young (1961, still in his 30s), but his books lived after him. He was read all through Africa and the Arab world, and young radicals quoted him as often as they did Mao or Lenin.

When I was a boy, even we read him…Americans, I mean…partly because Sartre promoted him, and partly because the Viet Cong also read him.

But, now, all these years later, I look at his works and I wonder what he would have thought about what’s going on today in the Arab world. I wonder if it would have confused him. It certainly doesn’t fall into his neat models of revolutions. The Egyptians, the Tunisians, the Libyans are not his “wretched of the earth,” i.e, the oppressed “natives” exploited by imperialism and white settlers, but rather local militants at war with local tyrants.

I suspect that, in the end, the present age would have proved beyond him. He was, in spite of his antagonism toward West, very much part of the Western tradition. He was a romantic, far more at home with Goethe or the European revolutionaries of the 19th century than he was with the Third World peoples he idealized.

And I suspect, too, that his Romantic’s soul would have found today’s revolutions incomprehensible, perhaps even repellent, for there is little place within them for his cult of violence, his loathing of the West which had humiliated him, and his love of the “People”—always with that upper case “P,” always an abstraction, never quite subject to analysis.

Most of all, I think, he would have been pained by the fact that this revolution contains no utopia. The People Power activists hope for better things, but I believe they lack the illusion that their actions will create heaven on earth.

Which would have hurt him. Quite a lot. For, surely, nothing is more agonizing than to be reminded, once more, that the gates of paradise remain firmly shut, and cannot be forced…

Not even with National Consciousness and high explosives.

Gadhafi...and once more I make a guess

I keep watching the situation with Gadhafi. I’m no expert, obviously. And every time I’ve made a prediction about him for the last few weeks I’ve proved wrong. At least in the short run.

But because I’m not too bright and I don’t learn from my mistakes, I’m going to make another guess at his future. This particular stab in the dark is that he is, in the long run, doomed. I suspect that the Europeans and Americans will eventually take him out of the game. They’re in so deep now…they’ve already sent in the fighters and the missiles, that I don’t think they could get out again if Gadhafi were still on his throne.

For one thing, this is the chap who gave us Lockerbie Bombing. Can you imagine what he’d do if were back in full control of Libya, and lusting for a little revenge on the Western Nations who opposed him?

Gadhafi Again, and once more I am humbled

Once again I return to Gadhafi. And once more I am made humble.

A few weeks back I confidently predicted that he would fall. (At least I wasn’t alone in that. Half the world seems to have assumed it.)

But, now, he may be winning. Those Who Know Best in political science departments, embassies, and European capitals are beginning to rethink their projections. China and Iran breathe a little easier. People Power is not, after all, invincible. If you are willing to bomb and strafe, and use mercenaries, and leave bodies in the streets...you can remain on the throne, no matter how despised you may be.

So, I am humbled. My predictions are shown to be nonsense. My only defense is that it never occurred to me that the West would not support (at least passively) the rebellion. I never considered the vast resources that oil had made available to the Gadhafi family over the last few decades. It never occurred to me that they would use those resources to pay for an army of foreigners to slaughter their own people.

And, maybe most of all, I never dreamed that something like the Japanese earthquake and tsunami would occur. The world, you see, is finite and interlinked. When something of this magnitude occurs, we focus our attention on it. Which is good, and speaks well for our humanity…but it also means that other actors are now free to do as they like without scrutiny. The cat is away, and the rat, as they say, well, you finish the sentence.

So, it may be that I was abjectly wrong and Gadhafi will win his war on Libya.

Yet, I will argue still that, on one level, I will be vindicated, and Gadhafi’s triumph will, in fact, be pyrrhic.

You see, here’s the thing: he may “win,” but only through massacre. And he will have expended much in the way of time, effort, money, and political capital in his struggle. It could be that eventually another rebellion, another crisis, will strike, and this time he (or his heirs) may not have the wherewithal to respond.

More...he is now revealed.

He came to power, and kept it, as a Man Of The People. He was a populist revolutionary. Like Nasser, and Peron, he was the man of action who took power in the name of the common folk, who would protect them from foreign imperialists and homegrown elites. He was tolerated because of that. Yes, the world said, he was a little strange, a little bloody-minded, and he funded terrorists…but, well, his heart was in the right place.

But, now, that’s gone. The world sees him as he really is: a tyrant, ruling with naked force over a seething people who would destroy him if that were possible. And, if he is remembered at all by history, it will be as that, illegitimate and foul, united in spirit with the Greek colonels, and the Argentine Junta, and Mobutu with his private Zaire…like them ruling exclusively for personal gain, like them kleptocrats, like them brutal and crude, like them kept in place only by the gun, the bullet, and the whip.

And, in the long run, that perception will matter. It will matter more than bombs and mercenaries. It will matter more than his “victory,” should that occur.

For, you see, truth is invincible. And once unleashed, as it is now unleashed, it can be deadly. At least to those who live by falsehood.

And this, Gadhafi and his heirs will discover. This they will learn, too late, as it twists and disfigures them...as it destroys them… as truth, for them, proves more toxic than poison, more fatal than plague.

Progressivism

Just posted another of my history lectures to Youtube. Honestly not sure how much my class uses or wants them. But, what the heck? It keeps me off the streets.

We are so small...

And let us always keep in mind…always recall…our aims, our goals, our struggles for dominance…nation versus nation, faith against faith, man against man, or woman…

All these are revealed to be so small, so tiny, compared to the forces that may be unleashed upon us at any moment.

We must, therefore, remember to stand together.

For all too clearly, the alternative, is that we will not stand at all.

Prayer...

I have met believers whose prayer is, at the moment, “God grant me understanding of this tragedy, and the ability to accept Your works.”

I do not join the prayer. It isn’t that I doubt its wisdom. My motivation is that I am, alas, too human. I do not want to understand. I do not want to accept these works of the ineffable and the unfathomable.

I want instead to stare in horror and mute incomprehension. I am not ready for serenity. Sainthood elutes me. But, at least, a small thing: mere humanity is fallible, but it possesses the power of empathy. Some saints, it seems to me, do not.

memento

Like everyone else, I am watching the news as the full extent of the destruction becomes clear. As of this morning, they are saying that at least 10,000 people have died. At least. They still have not found four trains…four whole trains…of commuters that simply vanished.

It is the power of it all that amazes me. The sea, the earth, they reached out, scattered our works like litter, broke bodies, possessed no concept of remorse. It was force incarnate. Strength incarnate. As vast and merciless as ancient gods.

We must remember, now, why once we feared the storm, the sea, the mysteries of caverns and the dark.

Or, to put it all another way…

Memento mori.

Japan...where to go to help

Where to go to help…

Yahoo has done the world a great service by posting a list of agencies and organizations providing aid to the survivors. You can even donate online. If you haven’t already seen it, go here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_newsroom/20110311/wl_yblog_newsroom/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-how-to-help

Japan...

Oh, the horror of what has happened in Japan…

It reminds us. We think we rule the world. We humans…masters of the universe.

And, then, in a flash, the universe reminds us.

How delicate, how vulnerable, how easily crushed…we are.

Found Photo

The following is based on my piece, "Found Photo." It was published in the October 2009 issue of Shoots and Vines.

You may see the original here:

http://issuu.com/shootsandvines/docs/shootsandvines4

(dedicated to a friend and former student…the daughter whose devotion the parent did not merit.)

another story in print

Just had another story in print -- Heliogabalopolis, at 5923 Quarterly. You can see it here:

Heliogabalopolis

The shape of things to come

This is pretty important. More to come on this subject shortly....


Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software

unlisting a video

Just "unlisted" one of my experimental videos from Youtube. It scared small children and large dogs.

Me, too, actually.

More on Gadhafi’s Children

I’m really quite fascinated by how “western” and familiar the Colonel’s children really are. They could show up at any party of Charlie Sheen’s and no one would notice the difference.

And it is amazing how common it is among the children of the mighty. Consider the sons of Kim Jong-il and Saddam Hussein. (One of the former, Kim Jong-nam, famously lost his father’s favor by sneaking into Japan to visit Tokyo Disneyland. They say that when he was stopped by the Japanese authorities, he was dressed in universal-world-kid fashion, with a gold chain and black slacks.)

One wonders if it isn’t inevitable. Given the temptations of the world, we succumb. Or, to put it another way, Baron Acton was right, but incomplete. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

But consumer goods… those too have power, and those too can be corrupting. And just as absolutely.

Libya 2: The Dictator’s Children, and What They Teach

(Now that I have confessed my own failures, let me turn to our national, American elites…)

I am going to argue that our American elites—the bankers, the lawyers, the Wall Streeters, all the rest—should be paying very close attention to Libya. Or, more particularly, to the Children of Colonel.

I confess, I knew almost nothing about Gadhafi’s children prior to the current revolution. I suspect that very few of us did. For a long while, they were sort of invisible. Oh, I’m sure Gadhafi’s sons, daughters, and potential heirs were known in governmental and diplomatic circles, but to the average American they were as little visible as ghosts in the noonday sun. One simply didn’t think of them.

But, they existed all the same. And now, we learn that they’ve been playboying it up around the world for decades. We get stories of champagne parties on Caribbean islands where big name entertainers are paid millions for a song or two. Like the sons of Kim Jong-il and Saddam Hussein, they have lived the lives of princes, consuming much, and producing little.

And the frightening thing is how familiar they seem. When you look at Gadhafi and his family, and you look past the trappings of revolution, the uniforms, the colorful “native” garb displayed at ceremonies, and all the rest of it…you find they look pretty much like our own privileged classes. You watch them on TV or the net, and they are in the same business suits and corporate casual attire. They have the same fashionable hair cuts. They drive the same expensive cars. They attend the same schools. They party on the same islands and sleep with (or try to, anyway) the same models and movie stars.

They are, we belatedly discover, simply one more variety of the global, international, jet-setting, rootless, world elite.

Something which, by the by, may explain much of how and why it was so easy for our leaders to forgive Gadhafi for so much, so quickly. It explains why a short few years after the Lockerbie massacre, Tony Blair stood smiling beside him, George W. Bush sent Condoleezza Rice to woo him, and our companies and corporations pressed in upon him almost hysterically, like Teenyboppers around a rock star.

It was because they recognized one of their own.

Which brings me to my point …to why I say our elites should be paying very close attention to international affairs.

Gadhafi is falling.

He may not be dead yet. In the end, he may manage to turn Tripoli into a kind of fortress city-state, separate from the rest of Libya. There, he and his heirs might hang on for a while yet.

But, in the end, he’s finished. The expense of holding on to power will vastly exceed his revenues. The very best he can hope for is to be a marginal figure, squatting Hitler-like in his bunker, and watching the empty hours pass.

Why do I stress that? Why do I say that our own privileged classes should note well his passing? Because they should keep in mind that if he can go, they can go.

Of course, no one in America is in Gadhafi’s league. No one has shot protestors recently, nor bombed and strafed innocent civilians. But, still our elites have not behaved well of late. They have done much to bankrupt the nation. They have outsourced and off-shored. They have been indifferent to the fate of their countrymen.

And if they keep on as they have done…laying off and cutting back, reducing men and women to drones and drudges, pretending that they do this only because of the inevitable laws of economics and that they have no choice in the matter … then, ultimately, they, too, will face consequences.

Like Gadhafi, they may survive. But they must ask themselves, now, before it is too late…will accounts received be equal to expenditures? Will it really be profitable to practice repression when a few compromises might defuse the ticking bomb?

Or, to put it another way, how comfortable are they, really…

In the bunker?

Libya 1: Gadhafi, Me, and My Fellow Liberals

This is the first of two related postings …

I have, like everyone else, been watching with bated breath while Libya fights its civil war. I, like most people, am of course rooting for the revolution. I hope that Gadhafi is gone before too much longer. (Although, alas, it is possible that he will endure for quite a while yet, hanging on, like a disease that cannot quite be cured, or a wound that will not heal.)

Yet, I must confess, Libya’s war has forced me to rethink some of my ideas. It has forced me to confront a few of my own failings…

Specifically, I have been watching while populist despots around the world—Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez—have stepped up to the plate to defend their friend and contemporary, Gadhafi, that hero of the revolution, who blew up airplanes and machine gunned his own people.

Castro, Chavez, etc. have said they will not abandon him in his hour of need. When pressed, they trot out the old creaking clichés about American and Western imperialism. (Perhaps only Gadhafi’s delusion that his people “love” him, and that the revolt is fueled by drugs and Osama Bin Laden, exceeds the sheer lunacy Castro’s proclamation that the crisis was an American invention meant to prepare the way for a NATO invasion of the Middle East.)

Which means that they are, indeed, birds of a feather. Which means, in turn, that those of us who are or were liberals… like me…have to wonder a bit about our support for such figures. And let us face it. We did support them. In our heart of hearts we admired the man on the white horse who came in the name of The People and turned out all the rascals.

But what if the man on the horse himself proves a rascal? Or, worse, a monster? And The People hate him more than words can say? Are we not somewhat guilty of supporting evil?

I am, thus, made uncomfortable. I am, thus, humbled.