The Next Sino-Russian War?

In January of this year,  Sarah C. Paine, a Professor at the U.S. Naval War College, authored an extraordinarily interesting article in The Kyiv Independent,  “The question isn't if China will turn on Russia, but when: Putin’s war on Ukraine blinds him to Russia’s real threat: a hungry China waiting in the wings.” In it, Professor Paine argues that it is only a matter of time before the (already somewhat shaky) alliance between Moscow and Beijing comes apart. Simply put, she says, China has more to gain from opposing the Russians than it does from supporting them – as in significant chunks of Siberia and the Russian Far East.

True? False? I’m afraid I have no idea. I’m not sufficiently versed in the field to make that kind of judgement. But, I’m old enough to recall the border clashes of 1969, when it seemed some sort of Sino-Soviet conflict was a distinct possibility. We no longer have a Soviet Union any more, and – at the moment – it seems that the Russians and Chinese have vastly more to gain from standing with each other, and against the United States and the West, then they do from pursuing any ancient quarrels.

But, the tensions that led to the 1969 clashes are still there. And one wonders if Beijing might not feel a certain temptation to make up for lost time, and lost territory, at a moment when Russia is distinctly weakened. After all, eastern Eurasia would be a marvelous addition to anyone’s real estate portfolio.

Frankly, I’m guessing a Sino-Russian conflict isn’t in the cards. I’m not sure what China stands to gain from a war with its neighbor. Russia is already China’s economic satellite. China controls Russia’s economy. Whether Putin likes it or not…or knows it or not…his country now dances to a Chinese tune, and will do so for the foreseeable future.

Still, perhaps that could change. Maybe China will see some sort of advantage in territorial expansion someday. Maybe…

Or to put it another way: if there is no honor among thieves, there is still less among dictators.

He's coming for you, Ivan.