Note to Putin: Don’t Even Think About It

Don't Tempt Him.

So several countries sharing a border with Russia are preparing for war on the theory that once Putin is done with Ukraine, other nations are bound to follow. One of those is Finland (see Finland accelerates preparedness for war in all forms by Shona Murray in Euro.news) and another is Poland (see Poland prepares for war by Rob Schmitz and Greg Dixon on the NPR website.) 

As is clear from both articles, the two countries are quite serious about fighting back. And remember, both nations fought wars of independence with Russia – Finland twice (The Winter War and the Continuation War), and Poland in the Polish-Soviet War of 1919-1921. In both cases, these much smaller European nations did remarkably well against their much larger rival. 

So, note to Putin. Don’t think about an invasion of either Poland, or Finland, or anywhere else in Western Europe. You didn’t do well in your initial invasion of Ukraine. You are still not doing terribly well there. And, yes, you’ve learned a lot over the last few years, but so has everyone else. We’ve all learned the lessons of this new kind of war – the importance of drones, cyberwarfare, social media, etc. –  and we know how to apply them. 

Therefore, here’s a word of advice. Yes, Trump, that repulsive lickspittle, has given you the green light to do what you like in Europe. But he’s not the only factor to consider. Finland, Poland, plus the whole of NATO, are fully capable of hurting you badly.

So badly, in fact, that even a victory might seem Pyrrhic at best, and an abject disaster at worst.

The Next Sino-Russian War?

In January of this year,  Sarah C. Paine, a Professor at the U.S. Naval War College, authored an extraordinarily interesting article in The Kyiv Independent,  “The question isn't if China will turn on Russia, but when: Putin’s war on Ukraine blinds him to Russia’s real threat: a hungry China waiting in the wings.” In it, Professor Paine argues that it is only a matter of time before the (already somewhat shaky) alliance between Moscow and Beijing comes apart. Simply put, she says, China has more to gain from opposing the Russians than it does from supporting them – as in significant chunks of Siberia and the Russian Far East.

True? False? I’m afraid I have no idea. I’m not sufficiently versed in the field to make that kind of judgement. But, I’m old enough to recall the border clashes of 1969, when it seemed some sort of Sino-Soviet conflict was a distinct possibility. We no longer have a Soviet Union any more, and – at the moment – it seems that the Russians and Chinese have vastly more to gain from standing with each other, and against the United States and the West, then they do from pursuing any ancient quarrels.

But, the tensions that led to the 1969 clashes are still there. And one wonders if Beijing might not feel a certain temptation to make up for lost time, and lost territory, at a moment when Russia is distinctly weakened. After all, eastern Eurasia would be a marvelous addition to anyone’s real estate portfolio.

Frankly, I’m guessing a Sino-Russian conflict isn’t in the cards. I’m not sure what China stands to gain from a war with its neighbor. Russia is already China’s economic satellite. China controls Russia’s economy. Whether Putin likes it or not…or knows it or not…his country now dances to a Chinese tune, and will do so for the foreseeable future.

Still, perhaps that could change. Maybe China will see some sort of advantage in territorial expansion someday. Maybe…

Or to put it another way: if there is no honor among thieves, there is still less among dictators.

He's coming for you, Ivan.

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