Watson 2: More on Machines That Think

Okay, you’ll recall that I’m in the middle of one of my infamous series—this one on the impact of our increasingly sophisticated machines on the white-collar professions. Last time I talked about Watson, the IBM computer that competed on Jeopardy a while back…competed, and won.

And, also last time, I argued that Watson and Watson-like devices will never threaten the human race. They are impressive, but they don’t genuinely think. They can and do sort a lot of data in a hurry, but, at least as yet, they can’t do what comes easily to any child, like being creative or innovative. They are not self-aware nor are they sentient, and so remain simply tools.

But, tools are mighty things in their own right. Last time I also argued that Watson-class systems and software will remake our economy and society. That’s because a single executive with access to such machines will be able to do the work of a hundred people. Which means that corporations, law firms, government agencies, universities, and even hospitals will employ far, far fewer MBAs, lawyers, administrators, specialists and other highly-trained white collar professionals.

Or, to put it all another way, we’re in for a cultural revolution. For the last century we have assumed that the way to wealth, well being, self-respect, status, and all the other aspects of a full life would come from being a “professional”—a doctor, a lawyer, a manager, and preferably a manager who did not soil his/her hands with anything vulgar like actually going into the field and touching things.

But, now…that’s not so true anymore. And our society is going to change to reflect with that.

How much will it change? Well, let me tell you a couple of stories. The first: there’s a man in my town who was a vice president at a large corporation. He had a seven figure salary, at least. He owns a huge house in an elite neighborhood, and sent his kids to private school and an Ivy League college. He was respected and admired, not to say envied by many of us in the area.

The kicker? Last year, his company was purchased by another. The new corporation then rationalized and downsized. It already had a marketing department. It didn’t need another one.

So, he was laid-off.

He got a very generous severance package. But, let’s face it, he’s probably never going to find a similar position. He’s middle aged. The corporate culture, like the corporation, into which he fit, is gone. The very industry in which he participated is changing beyond recognition. There is no room for him anymore.

Okay, now let me tell you my second story. It, too, is about a man in my town. But this is very different man. He will not in his entire life earn what the vice president was paid in a single year. He works down at the grocery store. He is a bagger. He suffers from a variety of physical problems, including violent and debilitating epileptic seizures. He has to wear a helmet at all times, so that if he falls his head will be protected.

His life is probably Spartan. Yet, he is intelligent. In fact, he is a talented potter. I see him and his wares at craft fairs around the area. I suspect he gets health insurance through the store, and then makes money on the side through his ceramics. His income may be low, but his wants are few.

Now, consider these two…

The second man is never out of work. If the store that employs him now should vanish, he could find another spot in an hour. Indeed, if he wished, he could go anywhere in the country and get a job.

The first man, though, the VP…he confronts the reality that he may never work again. He is too expensive, too specialized, and (though he is only in his 50s) too old for the corporations to hire again.

I submit that of these two men it is the second, the bagger, who is economically viable. The first man, the vice president, is not.

That is a fascinating and a terrifying thing.





We need to prepare for what is coming. We are going to have to come up with new ways for people to make their livings. And we’re going to have to learn to value different skills than we did before. We’ll have to figure out what we, as human beings, can offer the world that Watson and his children cannot.

And what’s that? What can we do that machines will never be able to do?

We can be inventive, empathetic and creative. We can have vision and purpose. We can understand the needs, wants, and motivations of our cohorts and customers. We can produce things which have never existed before.

We can be the anti-Watsons of the world.



But more on that, and how we’ll train our children for it, next time.

Onward and upward.


Copyright © 2011
Michael Jay Tucker