4D Chess, Occam’s Razor, and the April Fool

So there was recently an interesting article in the Atlantic, The Wild Trump Theory Making the Rounds on Wall Street: QAnon for tariffs by Rogé Karma. In it, Mr. Karma notes that among Wall Street insiders, there is a weird conspiracy theory circulating that Trump’s apparently insane antics about tariffs are actually planned and highly rational. The idea is that Trump is using his clownish behavior to drive other nations toward an agreement by which America would profit greatly. 

Mr. Karma is not impressed by the theory and suspects that Trump’s clownishness is the result of his being just, well, a clown.

I tend to follow Karma’s lead on this. Though, you always do wonder, could there really be more here than meets the eye. Could Trump actually be a brilliant tactician who’s just playing the fool to lure his enemies to their doom? It is certainly what his supporters have said many times in the past. They imply that he’s playing 4D chess and simply looking like he’s a nutcase. And you have to admit, so far Trump’s been far more successful than he has any right to be.

Upon reflection, though, I think that we can dispense with the theory that he’s a genius in disguise. Occam’s Razor suggests that the simplest explanation is often the right one, and so if a person appears to be a raging, narcissistic idiot…well, then…that is probably what he is.

Or, to put it another way, this particular April Fool is just exactly that. I.e., a fool, in April or any other month.