and now something else new...

And yet another book on Amazon.


Cities of Light, Cities of Stone

excargo in epub book form

And now, I'm happy to introduce to you, Explosive-Cargo 94: The Best of the Beginning...a book in the epub format.

where I've been

So, I've been silent for the last few weeks. Where have I been? Working my ...er,ah...you know what off.

I'm converting my old explosive-cargo column into book form. This is harder than it sounds. (Heck of a lot file converting.)

I'm happy to report that I'm making some progress, though. I'll shortly post the place on the Web where you can see the result.

mjt

Prolifers...people wasted (from 1994)

If the Anti-Abortion Movement took a tenth of the energy they put into noisy theatrics and devoted it to improving the lives of children who have been into lives of poverty, violence, and neglect, they could make the world a'shine.

NOTE, I've seen this reproduced as "...could make the world shine."

mjt

Religious Right...from 1994

The fundamental guiding principle of the Religious Right in America is that God ... the Omnipotent and Supreme Being who Created the Universe, whose Will is Cosmic Law and Whose all-powerful hand set the stars and galaxies themselves into their places ... needs to be protected from people who wear organic fibers and eat Brie on whole wheat crackers.

I'm getting ready...

I'm getting ready to collect some of my old Xcargos (from way back in the days when it was an ezine). This means I'm going through files that date back to the early 1990s or before.

Still, I'm surprised to find that some of the material still works. Well, sorta. Sometimes. Kinda. If you close one eye and look the other way.

Anyhoo, I'll be posting bits and pieces of what I find here. You might find them amusing.

More on Machines that Think, and What We Need to Do About Them

Hi, everyone,

Well, as you’ll recall, I’m doing one of my infamous series, this one on machines like Watson (the famous IBM computer that was on Jeopardy a while back) and the effect they’re going to have on the world of work. I’ve been arguing that such systems and software are going to put a lot of white-collar workers out of work. The professions, which have so long defined success in America, are going to become ever more sparse in terms of jobs.

I’ve also argued that the only thing we can do about it is to stress what we humans do well, and what machines do badly. We need, I suggest, to stress our capacity for creativity and invention.

However, I’m going to conclude my little series by saying that we’ve got a serious problem on our hands. To wit, we’ve got to learn to be creative. (And when I say “we” I mean our children. They are the ones who will rise or fail in the world that Watson made.) Ah, but there’s the rub. Right now our educational system is not geared up to produce creative people.

If anything, it is meant to stamp out creativity.

*

I’m quite serious about that. If you have children, think about the number of worksheets…all basically identical…that your son or daughter brings home in their bulging backpack every evening. Think of the endless exercises they are required to perform—again, all basically identical, all requiring the mastery of one or two basic rules (when this do that…divide by two…pick a verb). Think about the underlying assumption about work that is to be found in those exercises. And, consider, too, that the real lesson being taught here. It has nothing to do with numbers or words. It is rather that success comes from servility and passivity.

And we train them that way because that’s the skill you need to perform most white-collar jobs—i.e., you need to be able to sit down and perform certain prescribed tasks according to a limited number of fixed rules on an enormous number of data points.

But, as I’ve already said, Watson does that better than we can. And Watsons are going to be everywhere. So, for us to train our children to be Watson-esque is like training them in the arts of buffalo hunting and buggy whip manufacture.


*

What all this means is that our educational system has to change. And soon.

We need to teach our children to be creators. We need them to be innovators. We need them to be pioneering scientists, engineers, and technologists who don’t just apply the rules and turn the crank, but rather defamiliarize the obvious, and discover the obscure. We need them to be artists, musicians, actors and playwrights, filmmakers, and writers who ask uncomfortable questions, and perceive unexpected realities. We need them to be business entrepreneurs. Yes, entrepreneurship, too, is one of the creative arts. Perhaps, indeed, it is the most demanding of them all…the most requiring of invention and wisdom.

And, happily for us, we know how to do this. We know how to train children to be creators. There are no mysteries here. Maria Montessori and John Dewey explained it all a century ago. John Henry Newman, in his _ The Idea of a University _, did the same earlier still. You give children science, mathematics, literature, art, and philosophy as their toys.

You let them play.


*

Mind you, I’m not being “liberal” or idealistic, or utopian. This is not the chaotic classroom that some people blame for the decline of American education. It is a form of discipline…an unstructured discipline, perhaps, but discipline all the same. It is a system in which the teacher has authority, but an authority that leads rather than forces the way into learning. And it is ancient. It is the ultimate “back to basics.” It is the way of Socrates, Aristotle, Plato…and the Prophets, and Christ, and the Buddha. It is the way of the sage.

And, besides, we have no choice.

The reality is that Watson and his successors will reshape the workplace utterly. If we continue as we have in the past, our children will fail. They will be outclassed by the machine’s brute force. And, not just them, but our culture may perish utterly.


*


This is my argument. This is what I believe about Watson.

In fact, I’ve written an op-ed piece to this effect. I’m sending it about to magazines and newspapers.

Will it ever be published? I sort of doubt it.

There is a lesser and a greater reason for that. The lesser is that Watson is now old news. In an age of high-speed journalism, and higher speed opinions, he has already been discussed and judged by all the People Who Know Best. They have long ago moved on to other things.

The greater is I’m sending it to people who are editors and journalists — that is, people who have succeeded in the current system, people who are the products of J-schools and professional development seminars

Such individuals will not find my ideas particularly appealing.

But, even so…

Even if my manuscript lingers long upon the shelf until it eventually drops from view… I’m right.

And, in the end, Watson will prove it.

Time… and machines… are on my side.


*

Onward and upward.








Copyright © 2011 Michael Jay Tucker

Watson 2: More on Machines That Think

Okay, you’ll recall that I’m in the middle of one of my infamous series—this one on the impact of our increasingly sophisticated machines on the white-collar professions. Last time I talked about Watson, the IBM computer that competed on Jeopardy a while back…competed, and won.

And, also last time, I argued that Watson and Watson-like devices will never threaten the human race. They are impressive, but they don’t genuinely think. They can and do sort a lot of data in a hurry, but, at least as yet, they can’t do what comes easily to any child, like being creative or innovative. They are not self-aware nor are they sentient, and so remain simply tools.

But, tools are mighty things in their own right. Last time I also argued that Watson-class systems and software will remake our economy and society. That’s because a single executive with access to such machines will be able to do the work of a hundred people. Which means that corporations, law firms, government agencies, universities, and even hospitals will employ far, far fewer MBAs, lawyers, administrators, specialists and other highly-trained white collar professionals.

Or, to put it all another way, we’re in for a cultural revolution. For the last century we have assumed that the way to wealth, well being, self-respect, status, and all the other aspects of a full life would come from being a “professional”—a doctor, a lawyer, a manager, and preferably a manager who did not soil his/her hands with anything vulgar like actually going into the field and touching things.

But, now…that’s not so true anymore. And our society is going to change to reflect with that.

How much will it change? Well, let me tell you a couple of stories. The first: there’s a man in my town who was a vice president at a large corporation. He had a seven figure salary, at least. He owns a huge house in an elite neighborhood, and sent his kids to private school and an Ivy League college. He was respected and admired, not to say envied by many of us in the area.

The kicker? Last year, his company was purchased by another. The new corporation then rationalized and downsized. It already had a marketing department. It didn’t need another one.

So, he was laid-off.

He got a very generous severance package. But, let’s face it, he’s probably never going to find a similar position. He’s middle aged. The corporate culture, like the corporation, into which he fit, is gone. The very industry in which he participated is changing beyond recognition. There is no room for him anymore.

Okay, now let me tell you my second story. It, too, is about a man in my town. But this is very different man. He will not in his entire life earn what the vice president was paid in a single year. He works down at the grocery store. He is a bagger. He suffers from a variety of physical problems, including violent and debilitating epileptic seizures. He has to wear a helmet at all times, so that if he falls his head will be protected.

His life is probably Spartan. Yet, he is intelligent. In fact, he is a talented potter. I see him and his wares at craft fairs around the area. I suspect he gets health insurance through the store, and then makes money on the side through his ceramics. His income may be low, but his wants are few.

Now, consider these two…

The second man is never out of work. If the store that employs him now should vanish, he could find another spot in an hour. Indeed, if he wished, he could go anywhere in the country and get a job.

The first man, though, the VP…he confronts the reality that he may never work again. He is too expensive, too specialized, and (though he is only in his 50s) too old for the corporations to hire again.

I submit that of these two men it is the second, the bagger, who is economically viable. The first man, the vice president, is not.

That is a fascinating and a terrifying thing.





We need to prepare for what is coming. We are going to have to come up with new ways for people to make their livings. And we’re going to have to learn to value different skills than we did before. We’ll have to figure out what we, as human beings, can offer the world that Watson and his children cannot.

And what’s that? What can we do that machines will never be able to do?

We can be inventive, empathetic and creative. We can have vision and purpose. We can understand the needs, wants, and motivations of our cohorts and customers. We can produce things which have never existed before.

We can be the anti-Watsons of the world.



But more on that, and how we’ll train our children for it, next time.

Onward and upward.


Copyright © 2011
Michael Jay Tucker

WWII

Another of my little video lectures for my class in basic American history.

cheers
mjt

Watson 1: Thinking About Machines That Think

Okay, a while back I posted a link to a story on the New York Times webpage, “Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software,” by John Markoff. I said that it was very important.

You may have wondered why. I meant to explain myself quite a while back, but then, Gadhafi and Japan intruded. They were so much more important than any thoughts of mine.

But, now, I’ll get back to my point.

The software that is replacing legions of lawyers is a part of a much, much larger trend—that is, the development and application of technology which can largely automate certain aspects of white-collar work. The products mentioned in the piece allow one lawyer to do the work of many.

And it’s just beginning. Did you watch IBM’s Watson on Jeopardy? That machine’s performance was very much a sign of things to come.

Oh, don’t get me wrong. Watson isn’t going to take over the world. He’s harmless.

That’s because Watson isn’t really intelligent in a human sense. Watson’s showing was impressive. His ability to understand human speech was a technical triumph, and his capacity for seeking commonalities in huge collections of data was astonishing. But, I am not at all certain that he really understood his answers.

For instance, in one particularly amazing exercise (later highlighted on PBS’s NOVA), he was able to answer a question about Keanu Reeves and the movie, The Matrix. The way he did it was to identify “Reeves” as a noun and “movies” (or, actually, “flick”) as a category. He was then able to scan the Internet Movie Database in all its vastness for combinations of “Reeves” and some other qualifiers from the question.

As I say, impressive. But, ultimately, his answer wasn’t complete. I’m not sure he knows what a “movie” is. And I’m certain that his conception of a movie, should he have one, is not in any way human. He knows a “movie” is a “flick,” and that The Matrix is both of those…but he has no conception of what it’s like to see a film. He has no image of being in the warmth of a darkened theater, the air redolent with the scent of popcorn and butter, while your young son and his friends are in the row before yours, and you watch them tense and leap and cheer as villains are defeated and heroes triumph.

So that, I think, should be reassuring to anyone who fears that intelligent machines are taking over the world. Watson is amazing, but he cannot genuinely understand the human experience. It will be many long years before machines can do those things, if they ever do. (Sorry, gang, Skynet and Robby the Robot remain as distant as ever).

That’s the good news.

Now, the bad news. Watson and similar technology will engender a revolution in the workplace.

Let’s look at what Watson does really, really well. He—like all computers—excels at performing a number of small, tedious tasks over, and over, and over again. And, he is really good at shifting oceans of data in search of details and connections, no matter how trivial. And, finally, he obeys rules, inflexibly and tirelessly.

That was why he was so good at answering questions. He looked at millions upon millions of records in a thousand different databases, checking each and every one of them for certain qualities, and doing it all in nanoseconds. A human could never dream of doing the same, nor would any of us want to. It would be exhausting, and, bluntly, boring as hell.

But here’s where things get sticky. Consider what most high-powered, high-paying “professional” jobs entail. Sure, there are moments of insight and creation, but, let’s face it, most of what lawyers, business professionals, research-oriented academics, and even doctors do is pretty much what Watson does. They look at a lot of information and seek connections within an ocean of small, possibly relevant details. They do it according to a fairly limited set of rules. They do it as quickly as they can, and, if possible, do it 24/7 because that means they’re being more “productive.”

In other words, most of our white-collar professions, the jobs we value the most, are made up rote tasks.

And there’s the rub. Watson is far better at rote tasks than we can ever dream of being. His software and circuits are tireless. He is never bored or depressed. No operation is too mundane to excite him. No amount of data is overwhelming.

And better still, he is a perfect employee. He is without ego and need. He will happily work around the clock and back again. He is never on vacation. He never requires a sick day. He has no family to distract him from his tasks. He does not ask for a raise or a bonus. When the time comes to retire him, he demands no pension. You simply toss the body into a dumpster.

No, I’m not saying that Watson’s heirs will take over the corporation. Bill Gates and Tina Brown will not be replaced by a Terminator in the corner office. (At least not yet.) But the inescapable fact of the matter is that Mr. Gates and Ms. Brown will need fewer and fewer people to carry out their commands. A single executive, armed with one Watson, can do the work of a hundred MBAs.

And make no mistake, the world’s corporations know that. Watson is unique today, but he’ll be ubiquitous tomorrow. Even if he never sits on your desk like a PC or Mac, he’ll be available by subscription through the ‘Net. (And isn’t that what Google’s search engines are actually evolving toward?)

Which means that the white-collar professions (including the service professions which were supposed to save us in the postindustrial age) are going to employ fewer and fewer people. Just as the tractor removed the need for legions of field hands, and the industrial robot replaced a million men on assembly lines, so too will Watson and his children allow corporations, government agencies, and just about every other sort of organization to shed thousands of all too human professionals.

That, in turn, means that things are going to change. And big time.

But more about that next time.

Onward and upward.

Gadhafi...and Frantz Fanon

Right now, I’m reading Frantz Fanon’s The Wretched of the Earth. If you don’t know who he was, don’t worry. A lot of people don’t anymore. I’m not sure that’s a good thing or a bad.

Anyway, Fanon was a French psychiatrist, philosopher, and revolutionary. He was of mixed race (he was born on Martinique) and had experienced racism at its worst. He then worked for a time in Algeria while France was fighting its war there. He became radically anti-colonialist, joined the Algerian nationalists, and, wrote a series of books advocating the violent overthrow of European imperialism. He died young (1961, still in his 30s), but his books lived after him. He was read all through Africa and the Arab world, and young radicals quoted him as often as they did Mao or Lenin.

When I was a boy, even we read him…Americans, I mean…partly because Sartre promoted him, and partly because the Viet Cong also read him.

But, now, all these years later, I look at his works and I wonder what he would have thought about what’s going on today in the Arab world. I wonder if it would have confused him. It certainly doesn’t fall into his neat models of revolutions. The Egyptians, the Tunisians, the Libyans are not his “wretched of the earth,” i.e, the oppressed “natives” exploited by imperialism and white settlers, but rather local militants at war with local tyrants.

I suspect that, in the end, the present age would have proved beyond him. He was, in spite of his antagonism toward West, very much part of the Western tradition. He was a romantic, far more at home with Goethe or the European revolutionaries of the 19th century than he was with the Third World peoples he idealized.

And I suspect, too, that his Romantic’s soul would have found today’s revolutions incomprehensible, perhaps even repellent, for there is little place within them for his cult of violence, his loathing of the West which had humiliated him, and his love of the “People”—always with that upper case “P,” always an abstraction, never quite subject to analysis.

Most of all, I think, he would have been pained by the fact that this revolution contains no utopia. The People Power activists hope for better things, but I believe they lack the illusion that their actions will create heaven on earth.

Which would have hurt him. Quite a lot. For, surely, nothing is more agonizing than to be reminded, once more, that the gates of paradise remain firmly shut, and cannot be forced…

Not even with National Consciousness and high explosives.

Gadhafi...and once more I make a guess

I keep watching the situation with Gadhafi. I’m no expert, obviously. And every time I’ve made a prediction about him for the last few weeks I’ve proved wrong. At least in the short run.

But because I’m not too bright and I don’t learn from my mistakes, I’m going to make another guess at his future. This particular stab in the dark is that he is, in the long run, doomed. I suspect that the Europeans and Americans will eventually take him out of the game. They’re in so deep now…they’ve already sent in the fighters and the missiles, that I don’t think they could get out again if Gadhafi were still on his throne.

For one thing, this is the chap who gave us Lockerbie Bombing. Can you imagine what he’d do if were back in full control of Libya, and lusting for a little revenge on the Western Nations who opposed him?

Gadhafi Again, and once more I am humbled

Once again I return to Gadhafi. And once more I am made humble.

A few weeks back I confidently predicted that he would fall. (At least I wasn’t alone in that. Half the world seems to have assumed it.)

But, now, he may be winning. Those Who Know Best in political science departments, embassies, and European capitals are beginning to rethink their projections. China and Iran breathe a little easier. People Power is not, after all, invincible. If you are willing to bomb and strafe, and use mercenaries, and leave bodies in the streets...you can remain on the throne, no matter how despised you may be.

So, I am humbled. My predictions are shown to be nonsense. My only defense is that it never occurred to me that the West would not support (at least passively) the rebellion. I never considered the vast resources that oil had made available to the Gadhafi family over the last few decades. It never occurred to me that they would use those resources to pay for an army of foreigners to slaughter their own people.

And, maybe most of all, I never dreamed that something like the Japanese earthquake and tsunami would occur. The world, you see, is finite and interlinked. When something of this magnitude occurs, we focus our attention on it. Which is good, and speaks well for our humanity…but it also means that other actors are now free to do as they like without scrutiny. The cat is away, and the rat, as they say, well, you finish the sentence.

So, it may be that I was abjectly wrong and Gadhafi will win his war on Libya.

Yet, I will argue still that, on one level, I will be vindicated, and Gadhafi’s triumph will, in fact, be pyrrhic.

You see, here’s the thing: he may “win,” but only through massacre. And he will have expended much in the way of time, effort, money, and political capital in his struggle. It could be that eventually another rebellion, another crisis, will strike, and this time he (or his heirs) may not have the wherewithal to respond.

More...he is now revealed.

He came to power, and kept it, as a Man Of The People. He was a populist revolutionary. Like Nasser, and Peron, he was the man of action who took power in the name of the common folk, who would protect them from foreign imperialists and homegrown elites. He was tolerated because of that. Yes, the world said, he was a little strange, a little bloody-minded, and he funded terrorists…but, well, his heart was in the right place.

But, now, that’s gone. The world sees him as he really is: a tyrant, ruling with naked force over a seething people who would destroy him if that were possible. And, if he is remembered at all by history, it will be as that, illegitimate and foul, united in spirit with the Greek colonels, and the Argentine Junta, and Mobutu with his private Zaire…like them ruling exclusively for personal gain, like them kleptocrats, like them brutal and crude, like them kept in place only by the gun, the bullet, and the whip.

And, in the long run, that perception will matter. It will matter more than bombs and mercenaries. It will matter more than his “victory,” should that occur.

For, you see, truth is invincible. And once unleashed, as it is now unleashed, it can be deadly. At least to those who live by falsehood.

And this, Gadhafi and his heirs will discover. This they will learn, too late, as it twists and disfigures them...as it destroys them… as truth, for them, proves more toxic than poison, more fatal than plague.

Progressivism

Just posted another of my history lectures to Youtube. Honestly not sure how much my class uses or wants them. But, what the heck? It keeps me off the streets.

We are so small...

And let us always keep in mind…always recall…our aims, our goals, our struggles for dominance…nation versus nation, faith against faith, man against man, or woman…

All these are revealed to be so small, so tiny, compared to the forces that may be unleashed upon us at any moment.

We must, therefore, remember to stand together.

For all too clearly, the alternative, is that we will not stand at all.

Prayer...

I have met believers whose prayer is, at the moment, “God grant me understanding of this tragedy, and the ability to accept Your works.”

I do not join the prayer. It isn’t that I doubt its wisdom. My motivation is that I am, alas, too human. I do not want to understand. I do not want to accept these works of the ineffable and the unfathomable.

I want instead to stare in horror and mute incomprehension. I am not ready for serenity. Sainthood elutes me. But, at least, a small thing: mere humanity is fallible, but it possesses the power of empathy. Some saints, it seems to me, do not.

memento

Like everyone else, I am watching the news as the full extent of the destruction becomes clear. As of this morning, they are saying that at least 10,000 people have died. At least. They still have not found four trains…four whole trains…of commuters that simply vanished.

It is the power of it all that amazes me. The sea, the earth, they reached out, scattered our works like litter, broke bodies, possessed no concept of remorse. It was force incarnate. Strength incarnate. As vast and merciless as ancient gods.

We must remember, now, why once we feared the storm, the sea, the mysteries of caverns and the dark.

Or, to put it all another way…

Memento mori.

Japan...where to go to help

Where to go to help…

Yahoo has done the world a great service by posting a list of agencies and organizations providing aid to the survivors. You can even donate online. If you haven’t already seen it, go here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_newsroom/20110311/wl_yblog_newsroom/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-how-to-help

Japan...

Oh, the horror of what has happened in Japan…

It reminds us. We think we rule the world. We humans…masters of the universe.

And, then, in a flash, the universe reminds us.

How delicate, how vulnerable, how easily crushed…we are.

Found Photo

The following is based on my piece, "Found Photo." It was published in the October 2009 issue of Shoots and Vines.

You may see the original here:

http://issuu.com/shootsandvines/docs/shootsandvines4

(dedicated to a friend and former student…the daughter whose devotion the parent did not merit.)